Should I Stay or Should I Go?
As a full-time vagabond, that’s been the refrain of my last few weeks. States are unlocking, people are starting to get out of their homes. But, and this is a huge but, is this the right thing to do? Is it the right thing for *me* to do? That’s really the question.
I’ve said it before that I’m a firm believer in data-driven decisions whenever possible. The data, though, can be, and often is, a mess. The US is a huge country, and data is collected differently in every county, every state. In Florida, for example, the governor has ordered medical examiners to not release causes and counts of COVID-19 deaths; their counts were running about 10% higher than the “official” state counts. Why? The state doesn’t count non-residents who are infected and/or die in Florida. Why the hell not? They were here when they got it, they died here, so they should be counted as “person in Florida” rather than ignoring them. Honestly, it makes no sense to me. But I digress…
Where’s the Data?
If you remove NY from the US statistics, the counts of infections and deaths have continued to rise over the last few weeks. We’re losing somewhere between 1600 and 2000 people a DAY to COVID-19. That’s a very sobering data point right there.
I’ve started tracking the counties of places I might camp at, collecting the data daily from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 map (link). It’s hard to see data trends (how many people over weeks) so I’m making my own little charts that concentrate on the counties I might visit.
What are the Risks?
I’m healthy, no underlying health conditions, no regular medications. But I am 64 years old (or as my great-aunt Zilpha would have said, 64-and-a-half!) so there’s that data point to consider. If I am exposed and I do get sick, it’s just me out there on the road. Could I get to a safe haven where I could depend on friends to help me out and put me up, without putting them at risk? If I started feeling sick, how fast could I get back to Gainesville?
Given those questions, I started looking at places within a two-day drive of Gainesville, so somewhere between 500 and 600 miles. For me, a 200 mile day is usually a long one. Given the incentive of getting home quickly, I could bang out a longer day, say 350 miles and then a second day of 250 miles, as a reasonable case scenario. That gives me a range up the Atlantic coast to South Carolina, then inland as far as the southern border of Virginia. Decent enough range to have some variety and places to escape the heat and humidity that is the South in summer.
Where Could I Go?
Then I looked at places that are (A) open and (B) wide open campsites with plenty of room between them (social distancing, campground style) and (C) either at the coast or up the mountains because Southern summer is not to be trifled with. Places that meet those three criteria are mostly places I’ve stayed at before, and so I’m familiar with the campground layouts and the local communities, including grocery stores and gas stations (which is all I really need under normal circumstances).
One concern will be what is open in the places I want to go: is the campground still open, and is the local community around that campground open and welcoming to out-of-state visitors? The three Florida state parks closest to me still isn’t open, even for day hikes. I wanted to camp close to home for a few days to test out my new rig and be able to get things changed up, or have stuff delivered to the house if needed. Do I feel OK about having my first day of towing with my new pickup be a 200 mile day? No, I do not. I guess I could hitch up and drive it around the block, up the road, and back but that seems a bit silly when there are perfectly good campgrounds within a 30-minute drive. So I’m not sure what I’m going to do about this.
How Am I Preparing?
While I may not go, or not go far, I’m trying to cover the risks of vagabonding during this time.
1. I’m buying a few extra cloth masks so that I can wash and dry one while wearing another one. Masks are a “herd immunity” thing – if enough of us wear them, then the transmission rates are lower. A mask protects me and it protects you. It makes sense to have more than one. What if I’m washing the lone mask I have and a camp host knocks on my door?
2. I picked up a portable dump tank to empty my grey and black tanks after 3-5 days. Normally, when I’m at a campground, I use their toilets and showers, but those are considered virus magnets now. Instead, I would use my own facilities, although that means I fill up my tanks faster. I hate to stow everything, pull up stabilizers, and hitch up just to drive a 1/4 mile or less to the dump station, so the portable tank means less hassle emptying tanks. I’ve seen other people use these portable tanks for years, but never felt the need for one. Now I see the utility of it in a different light.
3. Before I go, I’s hit up my local grocery stores for as much as I can in the way of staples (beans, rice, pasta, canned goods, toilet paper, paper towels, etc.) so that I don’t have to buy as much on the road for a while. Especially in small towns, supplies may be limited and I feel like the locals should have first crack at things, rather than vagabonds and travelers.
4. I am accepting that my 2020 travels (if they happen from this point forward) will be different than my previous travels. Visitor centers may not be open. Rangers won’t be leading hikes or night sky talks. People won’t be as eager to meet up and share a campfire. The South wasn’t my first choice of where to spend most of 2020, but it’s looking like the smart choice. If I can get out for a few months of vagabonding, that may be all I get.
5. I pay attention to the news, the data, and analysis from epidemiologists. If there is a second wave this fall, or if COVID-19 combines with the normal flu season to hit hard and hit early, I’ll be scooting back to Gainesville pretty damn fast, trust me. State closures, campground closures, are both something I’ll be keeping an eye on.
What Are My Options?
I don’t know what I’m doing yet. It’s still too early to make a decision. Several Southern states have lifted lockdown but experts say that it will take 4-6 weeks for those effects to show up in COVID-19 statistics.
Right now, I’m considering three options:
– Go vagabonding from June to October, up the coast, then over to the Blue Ridge.
– Take a few weeks of “vacation” on the coast and then return to Gainesville
– Swelter in place in Gainesville and not go out at all.
Best case is the June-October option, but I’m about 50/50 on that actually happening. I’m hoping for at least a vacation fling to the coast, but a lot depends on how things look over the next month. I’m slowly facing the idea that sweltering in place right where i am now might be the safest, smartest choice.
What Will I Choose?
When my February fell apart with a bout of piriformis that required several days of bedrest and then the infamous sway accident, I thought for sure that month would be the worst one of 2020. In retrospect (and we’re not even halfway through 2020 yet), my February doesn’t seem that bad at all.
I was a bit concerned way back in early March about towing my Alto with a new vehicle. And whether I would have some level of PTSD about sway as I headed out again. Now? I’m way more concerned about whether or not I should move at all. Even if Florida lifts all the restrictions currently in place, and Alachua County (where Gainesville is located) does the same, it’s still my choice to go or not go. It’s still my decision on how safe I feel going outside my protected little bubble.
Different people in different situations will make their own choices. I’m weighing my personal freedom against the pull of the open road. I’m weighing my personal desires against community needs and the country’s health. It’s a tough set of decisions.
We all face these choices, vagabonds or not. May we each choose wisely, thinking of the long-term, the weak and elderly, the unemployed and the overworked.
The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Or the one.
Spock and Kirk (Star Trek: The Wrath of Khan)
It is the greatest good to the greatest number of people which is the measure of right and wrong.
Jeremy Bentham
So now I’m going to have to go find some of your June – October 2020 posts to see what you did!
I love how you are able to bring your thought process on paper! Thank you for sharing and I am sure you will choose the “right turns” as they come in sight 🙂
Differences in infection rates can be due to population density, but GA overall isn’t that highly populated. It’s more due to racial disparities: Albany and Gainesville are the two worst hit locations in GA and both are overwhelmingly black populations, and less affluent that anything on the coast. It’s becoming apparent from the data that minorities are being much harder hit by COVID-19, for reasons like less access to healthcare, food, more crowded conditions, etc. There are several articles on this, and yet it’s not getting a lot of attention in the wider media.
I think the wisest comment I heard is that, for now, we have to learn to live with the virus. For now, doctors are telling us how to stay safe, and maybe that’s the most we can expect.
However, can we really live this way for years? Some who are at-risk may have to. However, I think masks, gloves, and distancing may have to become the norm. The fastest a previous vaccine was developed was 4 years. We might have a vaccine in 18 months, but it will take at least another 6 months, probably longer, to inoculate all those who believe in getting vaccinated. (Don’t get me started on anti-vaxxeers.)
Hopefully, a viable treatment will come along sooner than the vaccine. I wish I had a better answer.
I wasn’t actually looking for answers, as I think everyone will have to ask and answer their own questions. I was more giving out some food for thought and my decision process (in progress) in case it helped anyone else, or gave them things to think about that they had not considered before.
Sometimes people find it easier to advise others, than to make their own decisions. If you had a friend in your situation (and I know you do), what advice would you give them? Be a friend to yourself, and take that same advice.
Annie, you have hit the nail on the head for me as well. Hence my new home for the next year or more if I need it per my FB post this afternoon. I will be mostly sweltering in place now in my 5th wheel for this year. Could be Soooo much worse so I’m good for now. Well said again! Rayne
Annie, lets meet in southern Va…. do the Clark Griswold greeting for a second than off we go!!
Glad you are still pushing the data, Annie. All reasonable scenarios, but as you say, we really still don’t know how things will change in the next month, let alone the next 4. I doubt we’ll get out of Sarasota this year. Of course we have an air conditioned condo so can bear the summer. And I have plenty to keep me busy. But missing the natural world for sure. And the real hard part is thinking that I might not see my kids or my mom for 12-18 months. We are lucky everyone’s healthy, and it’s most important to protect that, but it’s frustrating not to be able to see a way back to normal.
I remind myself that our parents’ generation had to put up with hardship and loss and long separations. We’ve been lucky to be footloose. Not being able to head out on the road or hop on a plane is a big adjustment.
Take care,
Sherry
This is a great read of all the things to consider. I’m retiring on Friday and am anxious to get out and go in my 2020 F1743. Thanks for the information and the thoughts.
Having grown up on the East Coast but now a Washingtonian, I giggled at Swelter in place.
Safe travels whatever you decision and I hope to meet you on the road sometime.
Annie, I am so glad you are calculating carefully. I am 30 minutes from hard-hit metro Detroit, and the eastern part of my own county has had a tough time too. My calculations have shifted in the past month to include:
1. Assuming I may not have time and energy to drive 1 or 2 hours for good help. The virus targets varied body systems, so symptoms and timing of illness are a real wildcard.
2. Having an oximeter.
3. Updating local hospital status so I can be within 30 minutes of a good system with some empty beds, plus a medium to large staff experienced with COVID. Overwhelmed staff and inexperienced treatments kept recovery rates low here at first, so I don’t need to invite that. Only 2 facilities handle COVID through most of outstate Michigan, and I wouldn’t want to be at one of them.
4. Assuming that county by county infections, social distancing, and back to work practices are fluid and can bring an unpredicted shift within 7 to 10 days. While rates of infection have gone down near me with many people sheltering beyond requirements, infections are sharply increasing in some counties 1 to 3 hours away that have different practices. I track this data carefully every 2 days or so.
My conclusion for now is to wait another 2 – 4 weeks. Then perhaps I will use Boondockerswelcome to find a farm or country cottage within 30 minutes drive of my home hospital and supports. I’ll camp just for short periods. I won’t be a friendly guest, I am afraid, with my mask and distance. But I will take a gift and a smile. I will hike local uncrowded trails, kayak, read and play my fiddle. And distance-hike with a few friends. If things are fairly calm, maybe by August I’ll go camp near another good medical facility, 4 hours from home, and do similar. That is if my son is willing to standby and drive up for help as needed.
Who woulda guessed this from the woman who has traveled Europe solo a month at a time?
The deck of cards of eventualities is continually being shuffled. I’m back in Canada from Vietnam and unsure where I’ll go next if anywhere, over the next 18 months. Vietnam was far safer, in terms of the virus but much too far away from my dear ones, in this time of crisis. If I were in your shoes, I think that I’d look for a relatively safe and cool-weather place to just go to and stay, whether that’s in your Alto, or whether it’s a room with friends or family. It would be best that groceries and medical care be easily accessible. My guess is that expectations and regulations will be in a constant state of flux as jurisdictions adapt to the alternating demands of reopening business and infection rates. It’s a hard time for us vagabond types! Think how different life was last July for you and I, as well as Robyn! After a decade of solo living, I’m making arrangements to rent a room in a friend’s house for the next 2-3 months, at least.
If you do venture out, get a pulse oximeter to measure your blood oxygenation. Get a baseline. Often times, folks with Covid don’t feel their pneumonia affecting shortness of breath until it’s critical because CO2 levels aren’t disrupted early on. However, heart-rate and fatigue become elevated early but declining oxygenation requires immediate attention. Read up on this. Good Luck Annie.
All I can say is that I feel for you having to make these decisions. You know me, I can hunker down in my little homestead for ages and not feel deprived, but I know it’s a lot different for you.
It’s a hot mess out there now, with little science to go on and state operating rules being made (and defied) for political expediency.
I hope that whatever you decide, you are safe and happy!
Maybe it’s time for a six month lease in a condo somewhere. Good luck and stay safe.
Annie, You may want to use Dr. Zack Bush’s thoughts as part of your decision. He’s a triple board-certified M.D., and presents an evolutionary discussion on why Coronavirus is here, what it’s trying to tell us, and how we emerge from the darkness. I’ve read and enjoyed so many of your blogs, and am guessing that his voice will resonate with many of your beliefs. Know that he shares information that is difficult to find in other places, and addresses the fear differently than others, which I found refreshing. All in all, a beautiful and unique presentation on the topic. Don’t miss his final message. You can find the interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RAtFBvKrVw&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1SE_utgvgvP7RCy0nsTK3jPlsOykmrMlVpwA8nUMY6OQsHDnDb1nuUQcc. Best wishes on your decision.
That Hightree site? Run by an anti-vaxxer, so definitely not my beliefs.
Whatever you decide, go with your gut feeling. It will direct you to the right place. You’re already home, on home turf, in your country. Keeping the social distancing is key. We have only to fear, fear itself. Good luck and stay safe.
Hi Annie:
Your insight is spot on. Like the group The Clash asks; “Should I stay or should I go?” Many Altoistes face the same dilemma. (BTW I graduated from U of F in 79 – Gainesville brings back fond memories. Like the time Robin Williams dropped down in a helicopter onto Florida Field as the guest star of Gator Growl and for the next hour blazed away totally unscripted as no one else has ever been able to do).
Here in PA most counties are now ignoring the Gov and the state’s health director and beginning to reopen. Many people out and about are refusing to wear masks placing everyone in peril. Our masks protect others from our nasties and those without have no consideration or respect for others.
Like you, I’m going stir crazy. This summer I’ve a volunteer position as a Yellowstone NP ranger assistant and given a free campsite with elect. and propane. I’ll be helping manage bear and bison jams along the roadways. YNP is still closed but I’ve been told it’ll probably partially reopen the first week in June, so I’ll be heading west in about 2 weeks. I think Grand Teton NP will likely follow suit. The campgrounds in both parks probably won’t open til late June.
Most national forests in the west still permit dispersed camping. I’ve no idea how many RVers are holed up in those areas. Our little Altos can safely manage most off-grid areas on forest service roads where bigger rigs are more limited. I suspect that most if not all national parks will reopen gradually, as will national forests though probably limiting the number of campers in their campgrounds.
I can get to Wyoming in 3 days with hard driving but that is something I’m refusing to do – it’s too hard on my 68-year-old bones. So I’m hoping to hop from national forest to national forest along the way. I suppose I could park overnight in Walmart’s if needed.
I hope things work out for you and you get out on the road. walt
ps: Nice looking truck!
In central Oregon, the Forest Service just closed all dispersed camping on Forest Service lands (other campgrounds were, of course, already closed). Reason: dispersed campers were not hauling out their trash or human waste. Disgusting. And ruined it for everyone who is responsible.
For Laura; If you are planning on going to Wyoming know that they are not allowing anyone from out of state to camp at their state parks. They just announced this last week.
I think your analysis of the available data, and your preparation thoughts are sound.
Option 1 is certainly appealing, to get back to some careful vagabond exploring, but it obviously carry’s the greatest overall concern. Perhaps plan a route that keeps you well within range of Gainesville for the first month, then at that time, throw in a smoke test to see how the plan is going. What are the campgrounds like, am I able to self isolate to the level I want, what’s the local vibe in stores, and ultimately, do I feel good about being out here? By doing this, you are venturing out as you really hope too, but you know you are not really committing to the entire four months of travel.
If all things still seem reasonable at that point, then expand the trip for another month, following your parameters. I think that as a responsible, cautious traveller, you are doing your best to protect others, and yourself. If the powers that have relaxed the rules, and opened campgrounds for limited use, then you are not breaking or flaunting any restrictions around movement or extended travel.
This is how we plan to roll this summer. Smaller, cautious forays into the wild, being ever mindful of what is going on around us. Ultimately it all boils down to how comfortable you feel at a given moment, and if your gut tells you that being out there is no longer enjoyable, then just start to head home.
Choose the safest place for you. Good luck
Annie, FWIW, cases in NM are declining right now but not a lot. Most of our cases are in the Navajo Nation, those are on the rise still. Hospitals have room. The Governor had said that a gradual reopening would happen May 15, not sure if that means campgrounds, parks etc. though. Everywhere else is seeing a rise after reopening, and it’s possible that the reopening date will be revised but I don’t think so. Just in case you want to travel this way. I would avoid Texas, though.
My personal biggest concern would be getting back home while battling the virus. Last year, I was camped just 50 miles from home when I ended up with a multi day bout of stomach flu that left me deeply exhausted—much as those I know who’ve personally had COVID have been fatigued. My reservation was up, and no available campsites elsewhere nearby because it was the height of camping season. I had to go, but breaking camp and then making that drive home was truly wretched. And probably not all that safe. Not a chance I could have gone 200 miles that day, or for a full week after.
I worry for all the fulltimers out there without a home base to retreat to. It has to be incredibly stressful.
That’s definitely a concern, but I also can’t see myself staying here for the next year either, till there is a vaccine. There are no easy answers. Full-timers are all dealing with these questions, and everyone has to decide for themselves the risks, the rewards, and the self vs. community choices implied in such decisions.
Tough call.
But, also worth considering, some areas might be safe than where you are now. Maybe going to those places could be a good call in terms of distancing yourself from Florida?
Actually, Alachua County is pretty safe, 300 cases, 5 deaths so far. Its that FL gets really hot and humid and I don’t do heat well at all, I get sick rather than acclimate, unfortunately.
Honestly, you are better off staying put. I think you might want to give your new truck and trailer a few test runs in the meantime. No overnight journeys and no more than a tank of fuel so you keep your exposure limited to where you are presently. And get tested so you are not exposing anyone else should you be carrying the virus unknowingly. You’ll get useful experience for later when you can safely travel again.
I also have a Honda Ridgeline, a 2017 model. I can tell you that vision is much more limited than the Subaru so that is something you will need learn to deal with and practice is a good thing.
I wish I could travel to see friends but I don’t think I should for public health reasons. My feet are itchy too.
I think a lot depends on where you are and where you want to go. About the Ridgeline, do you have a camper shell or tonneau cover or nothing on it? I didn’t get a camper shell because of the visibility concerns. Do you use mirror extensions when towing?
I don’t have a camper shell. And I haven’t needed a tonneau cover yet. I don’t use it for towing. The vision is limited by the high belt line of the truck and the extended cab structure with the higher seat back in the rear makes it impossible to look out the bed from the drivers position. Extended mirrors might help with backing up and maneuvering. The heavy tinting does not help. Aside from that, it is an excellent vehicle. Navigation and some of the safetly systems are frustrating. Best Wishes.